Saturday, August 2, 2014

Z-Rod in Mile High

At first glance it may appear that the Mustangs did not learn their lesson of paying huge money for big bats in their thirties after the disaster of signing Eric McSwan and Juan Ramirez for a combined $50 million a year.  After all here they are again shelling out $25 a year for 31 year old Lorenzo Rodriguez.  Yes, there are concerns.  2019 was Z-Rod's worse season.  His batting average dipped below .300 for the first time and he posted a career low 1.4 WAR.  Actually his numbers across the board were down.  OBP, SLG, HR, RBI.  All of it.

What it really came down to was available money.  The Mustangs have virtually no payroll and with their young studs still a few years away from arbitration there is not much on the horizon.  Even after maxing out scouting and player development budgets the projected final balance for 2020 was close to $50 million.  So what is left to spend money on?  The draft position is not high enough to make a big rookie offer a likely necessity.  After seeing a couple of international FA classes a stud coming from that pool seems unlikely as well.  In normal free agency Rodriguez was literally the only player available that looked good enough to unseat any projected Mustang starter.  Even after adding $25 million to the payroll for Rodriguez the Mustangs are still sitting at only the 20th payroll in the ABL.

Two mistakes happened with the signing.  First the Mustangs found out they need to send their accountants back to elementary school to retake some basic math classes.  The two years of team options was obviously illegal.  Thanks to Gary and Jason for catching my screw up and quickly correcting the contract.  Z-Rod wanted an eight year contract.  He negotiated me up to the $25 million number to accept a shorter one.  While a two year commitment would obviously have been preferred the hopes are certainly that he will continue to produce into his third year.

The other unfortunate occurrence was the loss of the compensation pick.  The Mustangs farm system is basically barren right now and the loss of a number 9 over all pick was determined to be not worth the signing.  Research seemed to show that the first 10 picks were protected.  In hind sight it is obvious that number comes from MLB where there are 30 teams.  It turns out that it is the top 1/3 that is protected, or 8 in our 24 team league.  Mustangs pick was literally ONE away from the being protected.  It is just one of the little things that seem to happen to Mile High.  It fits nicely with the #8 overall pick the Mustangs lost in the McSwan signing year, that one because of where on the calendar we used to hold the draft, and the Mustangs owner dying in the inaugural ABL season leaving the Mustangs to this day as one of a couple of teams with a less than perfect patience and fiscal personality in their owner.

OK.  Enough with the complaining.  Bottom line is I think the Mustangs made a financial move that they can definitely afford and brought in a bonafide big bat to bolster their lineup.  I am setting the over under for Z-Rod home runs in Debris Field (KC) this season at 10.  Lets get this season started!

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Mustangs State of the State

While my competitive nature is not pleased with a 75-87 third place season it actually validates some good growth for the optimist in me.  The McSwan/Ramirez fiasco from a few seasons back is firmly in the rear view mirror and a somewhat wiser GM has emerged.  Attendance increased from 30k to 40k a game.  There is virtually no salary on the books.  And the Mustangs appear to be going into the 2020 season with only three players that have seen their 30th birthday.

Catcher:
Despite combing through all available talent pools there really were not any options to upgrade catchers.  From what I can tell the Mustangs are not alone in that assessment.

In 2020 the Mustangs will likely return to the R/L platooning Shane Bunch and Bob Genge at catcher.  Both were pretty solid defensively.

Bunch's offensive numbers were fairly anemic but he did show a flare from the dramatic.  No batting title is on the horizon here but the Mustangs hope he can keep coming through in the clutch.

Infield:
The true strength of the team.

At second base Sosa "Nuclear" Mizuno broke out big time with a 5.6 WAR.  His development is still trending up.  There is no reason to think his best seasons are not still to come.

Short stop Dayne "Cruel Shoes" Reagan is an absolute stud.  He shattered the ABL single season record with 150 walks.  That went a long way towards posting a beastly .445 OBP.  He needs to mature on the base paths and pick and choose his spots.  He definitely got picked off way too much.  The fans can't help but love how he approaches the game though.  

Switch hitting third baseman Mashashi "Sparky" Kogawa led the team with 123 RBIs.  He was directly responsible for more than 1/6 of the teams runs.

First base was a revolving door.  The 2020 plan is another R/L platoon situation featuring German Hernandez and Yasunobu Kanno.  Hernandez came up in September and was the team leader with a .578 slugging percentage.  He is all about the doubles.

Outfield:
Again the Mustangs seem to be dealing with issues most ABL GMs can relate to.  This is a muddy pool of uncertainty that will require lots of analyzing in spring training to gain some clarity.

Left fielder Allan Jackson has been great in the minors and putrid in the majors.  He really needs to step up and play up to his ratings.  Especially since his right handed bat is a rarity in the Mustang's outfield options.

Center fielder Jim Richter first has to prove he can stay healthy and when healthy can contribute.  His excellent defense, reasonable OBP and speed will probably make him the #1 option as a place holder until top prospect Elvis McNeil shows that he is ready to step in.

The best right field option may end up being Jeff Kent.  Kent remains a team leader in batting average, OBP and stolen bases.  He is the polar opposite of the clutch hitter though and compiles a lot of stats in garbage time.  Despite solid numbers he has big negatives in VORP and WAR.  Also an ugly 65 OPS+

Also in the murky waters are Alan Blanchard, Floyd Cross and Steve McDonald.

Rotation:
The Mustangs have a group of good but not great starters.  Their strength is there is very little difference between number one and number five.

Cedric Leroux was a fantastic find in the rule 5 draft.  He stepped in and provided the much needed left handed arm in the rotation.  His 154 strikeouts led the team and he held his own as a rookie with nearly 60% quality starts.

Cliff Stevens spent the majority of the season on the DL but returned to start 8 games and had a 3.59 ERA.

Kevin Landry is probably the #1 guy now and Jose Ramos should be the ace pretty soon.

The final spot will be determined after spring training with cagey veteran Manual Ruiz battling waiver acquisition Luis Hiracheta.

Bullpen:
ABL save leader David "Slam" Reynolds was released this year after his continued decline that started the moment he inked his big payday contract.  The decision was made easy due to the emergence of Leon King.  Leon will tell you that it really is good to be the king.  He was 12 of 13 in save situations down the stretch and compiled impressive stats.  1.18 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 58 Ks over 12 walks.

Setting up for the left handed King will be right handed Andy Smithey.  Smithey can handle a large workload and is comfortable starting his set up duties in the seventh.  He looked untouchable at times with his 1.64 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

The rest of the bullpen will likely remain the same as they did lead the league in ERA in 2019.  Front runners are Darryl Bradshaw, Pancho Vargas, Woody Williams and Greg Rose.  If it's not broke don't fix it.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Looking for a flash

Once upon a time in the long long ago, the Mile High Mustangs were a team with an identity and a bright future.  A big part of that started with the 15th pick of the 7th round in the inaugural draft.  The Mustangs picked up 26 year old center fielder Eric "Flash" Black.  At the time it was really only about his defense and his speed as no exciting offensive outfielders were available.  Black played three years for the squad.  No one was more surprised and pleased with his progression than Mustangs management.  His VORP progressed over his career from 2.3 to 32.7 to 62.3!  All the while he retained his elite defensive status posting a 71.3 zone rating over his three year career.

It can be argued that no player at the time represented his teams identity more than Flash.  In a park and team built on defense and speed he was the epitome of both.  There is no arguing he was the absolute catalyst of the offense.  Even now, five years later and despite playing only three seasons, Black still appears on the Mustang career leaders in all of these categories: 
#3 Batting Average
#1 On Base Percentage
#2 Slugging Percentage
#2 OPS
#5 Runs
#7 Hits
#7 Doubles
#2 Triples
#6 Home Runs
#8 RBI
#6 Walks
#1 Stolen Bases
#2 IBB
#3 HBP
#5 Extra Base Hits
#7 Total Bases
#4 VORP

The Mustangs were neck and neck with the Jokers for the division title with 10 games to go when disaster struck.  Flash slammed his head on the outfield wall while making one of his patented diving catches.  The resulting concussion caused him to hang up the cleats, never to play again.  The impact was immediate.  The Mustangs struggled down the stretch, losing the division to Vegas and barely holding on to the wild card spot.  The Flashless team put up a token resistance in the first round of the playoffs, losing 4-1 to Cabo in a series that really wasn't that close.

Since then the downward spiral has continued to the point that the Mustangs pick #1 overall in this years draft.  It has been an organization desperately looking for the quick fix and in the process, struggling to retain their identity.

But hold on one second.  What was that about the first pick?  Well it just so happens that the Mustangs have their eye on a guy that looks suspiciously Flashish.  Rumors have it that the Mustangs have been feeling out center fielder Elvis McNeil.  That speed a defense look pretty familiar.  Could he possess the offensive prowess to compliment it, ascend through the minors and become the catalyst the Mustangs have been missing so long?  Could the Flash be on the way back?

Only time will tell.

Go Mustangs!

Friday, April 18, 2014

Mustang 2018 review

The 2018 Mustangs were able to manage 3 more wins than the 2017 group.  Still the season was an important step in the right direction.  However you have to look at different numbers to see the team's real progress.  Terrible financial decisions led to a bleak outlook for 2018.  The multi million dollar deficit led to virtually no scouting and player development budgets and blocked the team from really making any significant moves.  They were able to get out from all but one bad contract.  For 2019 the owner has raised the budget by $18 million to a reasonably competitive $112.  While the Mustangs attendance was still the worse in the league, it did increase by over 30% and we are able to start the season with the full 20 million in cash.  We will be able to invest heavily in scouting and player development and commit fully to rebuilding.

2018 was also the season the Mustangs fully committed to tailoring a line up to fit their park.  The results were certainly mixed at best.  The stolen bases and extra base hits were definitely there.  It unfortunately did not lead to many runs.  The defense was all it was supposed to be and more with an impressive 55.1 zone rating.  22 points higher than the number two team.  Despite all of that help, the pitching staff was still able to finish only in the middle of the pack.  This is obviously a point of major concern that will have to be addressed.

The day may be coming that the grand defense and speed experiment gets thrown out the door in favor of a more standard ball park and roster, but now that the finances are in place to rebuild we are going to give it a couple more seasons before building a new park and starting all over again.

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Something to be excited about in Mile High

Sometimes it is tough to find excitement when your team is rolling with a .357 winning percentage and 18 games out of the division lead in June.  But the Mustangs are generating a ton of local buzz this week.

Second overall draft pick Dayne Reagan will suit up tonight in Mustang orange and blue when division foe Eureka comes to town.  Negotiations were quick and painless and no sooner had the ink dried before Dayne was given a jersey and a plane ticket to Denver.  The team will waste no time inserting him into the starting lineup as the #2 batter.

22 year old Reagan, affectionately known to his fans as "Cruel Shoes", was all smiles when he talked to the press.  "I feel totally ready for this.  Playing in the ABL is a dream come true.  Ever since my dad bought me my first glove I have been pretending I was a major leaguer."  Reagan grew up in Wichita Kansas and fondly remembers attending dozens of Tornado games as a youngster.  When asked how he felt about playing for the rival Mustangs he responded.  "Sure, as a kid I was a Tornado fan but now they are the bad guys."  The Mustangs have three games in Kansas City in the latter part of the week.  "Man, it just couldn't be more perfect" he observed when asked how it will feel to be on the field at KC so quickly after his signing.  "I hope I can give the fans something to remember".

By all accounts the Mustang fans response to the signing of Reagan has been "amazing".

Monday, February 24, 2014

The Grand Experiment Continues

Apparently having a super pitcher friendly ball park and fielding a team to succeed in it is harder than it first might appear.  Mustangs management are taking last years disastrous season as a learning experience and moving on.  A flurry of trades have given the team a complete makeover both financially and on the field.

Finances got destroyed last year and the owner rightfully put the kibosh on that crap by yanking 26 million out of the budget.  That is going to take awhile to rebuild but the ship got pointed quickly back in the right direction by sending DH Eric McSwan and his $23 million salary to Minnesota along with starting pitcher Scott Wilson.  Wilson will be sorely missed but it was worth the price to get back into the black.  This was truly a deal that should be good for both teams.  Expect McSwan to flourish away from the deep Mile High fences.

The Mustangs completed terms on 7 other trades.  (9 if you include the Delhaye and McCreary moves just before the trade deadline last season).  Several players were not extended arbitration offers or were outright released.  Also, the Mustangs were pretty active in the Rule V draft and were able to find three players they hope can be major contributors right now.  The 2018 opening day Mustangs barely resemble the group that took the field opening day just a season ago.  Mashashi Kogawa stands as the one and only player that was in the starting lineup up 365 days ago.  That's right, the Mustangs lineup features 8 new batters from a year ago.

Infield

2B Sosa Mizuno got himself injured in the preseason so we won't get to see the Mustangs top prospect in action for a month or two.  Heydar Botsvade had a pretty solid season last year and will fill in in the interim.  At short stop, Thomas Blanchard will get the starting nod.  Mustangs found him in the Rule V draft.  His strong defensive capabilities make him a nice fit.  23 year old Hiroya Aoki was obtained from the Bombers and will start at 3B.  Rounding out the group is previously mentioned Mashashi Kogawa at 1B.  Francisco Morales will stick around as the utility guy.

Outfield

CF Jim Richter was selected in the second round of the 2013 draft.  Expectations were sky high for this speedster to replace Eric Flash Black after his CEI.  His development has been slow and he does not appear to be the super star Flash was turning into.  But his speed and defense look pretty great and he'll suffice nicely.  Time will tell if he will ever develop the OBP consistency he needs to be a viable lead off guy though. In LF we will see a ton of Jeff Kent who joined the roster as a piece of the Delhaye trade last year.  This is a downgrade in batting prowess but an upgrade in defense and speed.  In right field we'll use Harold Poole.  He led the Mustangs last season with a .278 batting average and can cover a ton of ground in the field.  Raymundo Gaias and Alan Blanchard will complete the unit and sub in where needed.

Catchers

For the first six seasons the Mustangs featured two amazing defensive catchers almost exclusively.  Neither were invited back to training camp this year.  25 year old Shane Bunch has been progressing through the minor leagues and is ready to be the main guy.  Orlando Hernandez will handle the LHP side of the platoon.  He is a home grown Mustang as well.  Both catchers are previous 6th round Mustang picks.

Starting Pitchers

Kevin Landry, Cliff Stevens and Manuel Ruiz all return from last years rotation.  The hope is that a better defense behind them and improved strategy settings will help them regain pre 2017 form.  Masahide Memoto was added via Rule V.  He had a shaky spring and a shaky history.  He gets a shot because the rotation desperately needs a lefty.  Fifth starter duties will be filled by Arturo Gonzalez, a 2017 waiver find.

Bullpen

Closer David Reynolds is stuck on the roster for contractual reasons.  He'll get first dibs at the closer role but is on a short leash.  Eagerly awaited Andy Smithey finally is breaking into the majors.  We love the 26 year old as a set up guy.  We are also excited about the third of the Rule V finds, Pancho Vargas providing left handed relief.  Leon King excelled last season as a specialist against lefties.  His role gets expanded.   Finally Marty Garrison and Colby Hoffman will hold down the fort until better options become available.

So that's your Mustang run down.  Detractors claim that the ball park is the biggest disadvantage.  We are still not ready to bail on the idea of making it our biggest advantage.  A bunch of brand new faces and completely updated strategy settings guarantee one thing.  If we are going to suck again, we are going to suck in a completely new way.

Go Mustangs.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

2017 Report

Infield

The Mile High infield faced much instability and never really got settled into a groove.  For five years you could count on Callum Ritchie at short and super star Jeff Wade at second.  The loss of Wade to free agency was certainly felt and Ritchie finally got himself benched at the all star break.  It looks like the Mustangs won't exercise Ritchie's team option marking the end of an era.

One of the few bright spots for the season was Mashashi Kogawa's play at first base.  He was the only Mustang with 600 at bats and led the team with 90 RBI.  Previous unanimous vote all star Francisco Morales had a disappointing year as he bounced around between all infield positions and never really got comfortable.  Heydar Botsvade and Randy Bingham battled back and forth for playing time.  It is yet to be determined if either can be a long term option.

Watch out for stud 2B prospect Sosa Mizuno to break through and be an impact player in the next couple of years.

Outfield

Lots of experimenting happened in the outfield as well.  24 year old Harold Poole was another bright spot.  He put in time in all three outfield positions and ended up with a positive zone rating everywhere.  He also managed a .278 batting average which is like .380 if you are not a Mustang.  Long awaited Jim Richter finally made his major league debut with marginal success.  If nothing else his speed and defense should keep him around.  Jeff Kent who was obtained in the Tim McCreary trade looks like a good asset as well.  Josuke Sato has proved to be more of a DH on a team that doesn't need another one.  His future as a Mustang is in jeopardy.

Watch out for stud prospects Manuel Aguilar, Tetsuo Chikuda and Mitch Wolf.

Catcher

Defensive studs Len Brewer and Randy Gibson have seen the lions share of the playing time over the first 6 seasons.  Neither are likely to be a part of the organization next season.  25 year old Shane Bunch broke into the majors this season and looks like he might know which end of the bat to hold on to.  He is not quite as good at stopping the ball but trying to run on him is still pretty risky.  Orlando Hernandez is likely to get the starting nod.  He has been screaming for playing time for a couple of years and next season will get his chance.

Starting Pitchers

The Mustang starters ranked 9th in the TML with an ugly 5.13 ERA.  A good chunk of the problems may be chalked up to a young GM that is still learning the ins and outs of the system.  At least four members of the rotation should return in the hopes that better coaching decisions result in improved performance.  Manuel Ruiz, Scott Wilson, Cliff Stevens and Kevin Landry have all been given a free pass on a forgettable season.

Bullpen

Contracts will force the Mustangs hand and keep David Reynolds and Joe Russell around.  Young stud Leon King was the third of three bright spots in the 2017 season.  We'll be happy to keep him around.  The rest is too be determined at the moment.


The pressure is really on now with the Tornadoes winning it all.  How long does it take to go worst to first?  I like our chances in 2020.  Here come the Mustangs!